US Equities Newsletter and Model Book
Monday, September 28
Every trading day: a morning outlook and a night wrap.
Twice a month: a model portfolio of about 15 names, rebalanced at 9:00 AM ET on the 2nd and 16th. We stay in large and mega caps, and in liquid sector ETFs. Those names follow sector rotation. Not a thin story stock.
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Today's bulletin · session wrap-up
Monday, September 28, 2026
U.S. equities finished Monday broadly lower as early strength failed to hold. SPY opened at $768.10 and traded as high as $769.54, but weakness across eight of 11 sectors pulled it to a $763.72 low. A modest rebound left SPY at $765.55, or $1.83 above the low, though the close remained below the opening print and marked a decline of 0.75%.
Gainers PG +1.9% · PM +1.7% · NKE +1.7%
Losers BA -6.9% · INTC -5.7% · META -4.8%
A publication for self-directed investors. Not personal advice, not portfolio management.
Held from MON close· Thermometer 50° NEUTRAL· AB-AI DEFENSIVE TILT
TRH holds the hazard by desk rule while the live read has slipped a band, into a window that runs into PCE Wednesday and NFP Friday. SHC reads the two forces converging toward the drawdown event, the gap narrowing over the past five sessions — suppression capacity intact, price pressure still short of its threshold. Under the desk rule, dips should stay shallow and temporary while 725 holds, and the read changes only if the next tier-1 release lands or the hazard steps back down.
desk read · written 6:35 PM ET
Since Fri· Thermometer 58° → 52°· Trend 58 → 56· SHC NO DRAWDOWN → INCIPIENT· AB-AI GUARDED → DEFENSIVE TILT· Verdict unchanged
Equity
Commodities
Factors
Rates & Credit
Global & Dollar
Hedges · inverse
gauge = 20d momentum + 5d trend + RSI · ≥60 strong · 50–60 firm · 40–50 soft · <40 weak · hedges inverted: low = calm
Supports the trend
Tempers it
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The TRH desk read, internals and rotation, refreshed through the session.
Every session, the Triaxial Regime Hazard read sets the regime first: a calibrated drawdown probability, adjusted for saturation, macro fragility and the event window. Several models then draft flow and sentiment against that number. We comment, cut, and publish what survives. You get the research. You make the decisions.
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